2017 Gainesville Election Breakdown

Gainesville’s progressives swept the last month’s March elections beating out the only two Republican held seats. Republican incumbent Craig Carter lost to 26 year old David Arreola 66% to 34% and Republican Perry Clawson lost to Harvey Ward in a three way race 27% to 51%.

On the surface it looks like the cause of these upsets was an all around decrease in turnout, but that’s a very incomplete picture. The reason the City of Gainesville has the most progressive commission in recent memory is because nearly a thousand more Democrats and over a thousand less Republicans voted in 2017 compared to 2014.

But why did this happen? Three reasons stand out according to my analysis: Slight changes in districts, uniquely problematic Republican candidates, and most importantly, a Trump effect pushing new city voters to the polls and depressing Republican turnout.

The Electorate and Turnout:

Turnout was down 3.2% compared to 2014 but this was mostly due a large increase in people registered to vote in the City in 2017. The raw numbers amount to around the same number of people going out to the polls. The largest drop in turnout came in D3 with a near 6% decrease from 2014.

Turnout 2014 vs 2017 by district
District	2017	2014	Difference
D2	19.3%	22.3%	-3.0%
D3	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%
D1 and D4	6.6%	8.2%	-1.6%
Total	11.8%	15.0%	-3.2%

There were about 16,000 more people registered to vote in the city in 2017 than in 2014 and nearly 9,000 of them were Democrats. Republicans still gained some 2,700 eligible voters giving Democrats a small, 1.7% registration advantage over 2014. Overall the largest change was a less than 3% net change in favor of Democrats in D3. But this small change can’t account for the major shift in D3 from 2014 when Carter beat Democratic incumbent Susan Bottcher 53% to 47%.

Registered Voters 2014 vs 2017 by Party
At Large	2014	2014 %	2017	2017 %	dif #	dif %
Dem	37,322	51.99%	46,241	52.57%	8919	0.58%
Rep	16,156	22.51%	18,854	21.43%	2,698	-1.07%
Total	71,788		87,969		16,181

D2	2014	2014 %	2017	2017 %	dif	dif %
Dem	10,040	49.61%	11,683	50.49%	1,643	0.89%
Rep	5,656	27.95%	6,143	26.55%	487	-1.40%
Total	20,239		23,137		2,898

D3	2014	2014 %	2017	2017 %	dif	dif %
Dem	8,869	48.81%	11,086	49.62%	2,217	0.82%
Rep	4,594	25.28%	5,178	23.18%	584	-2.10%
Total	18,172		22,341		4,169

D1 and D4	2014	2014 %	2017	2017 %	dif	dif %
Dem	18,413	55.17%	23,472	55.24%	5,059	0.07%
Rep	5,906	17.69%	7,533	17.73%	1,627	0.03%
Total	33,377		42,491		9,114

The issue for Carter, Clawson, and possibly many Republicans in 2018 is about Democratic vs Republican turnout. Overall Democrats had 970 extra voters from 2014 to 2017, keeping their turnout flat at 17% but Republican turnout dropped to 9%. The largest difference was in D3 where Republican turnout dropped 12% from 2014 levels. Another way to say this is that even with close to 9,000 more Democrats registered to vote in the city they still managed to turnout at 2014 levels. The 3% drop in turnout was almost entirely due to Republicans staying home.

Cast Votes 2014 vs 2017 by Party
At Large	2014 Voters	2014 Turnout	2017 Voters	2017 Turnout	dif	dif %
Dem	6,690	17%	7,660	17%	970	0%
Rep	2,925	18%	1,773	9%	-1,152	-9%

D2	2014	2014 Turnout	2017	2017 Turnout	dif	dif %
Dem	2,485	25%	3,030	26%	545	1%
Rep	1,519	27%	995	16%	-524	-11%

D3	2014	2014 Turnout	2017	2017 Turnout	dif	dif %
Dem	2,121	24%	2,260	20%	139	-4%
Rep	1,058	23%	588	11%	-470	-12%

D1 and D4	2014	2014 Turnout	2017	2017 Turnout	dif	dif %
Dem	2,084	23%	2,370	10%	286	-13%
Rep	348	8%	190	3%	-158	-5%

Clearly low Republican turnout was a major factor in these upsets but a more illuminating way to look at this is by vote share, the percentage of the votes cast up by a party. In D2 Democrats netted a 30% gain in vote share on a 2.2% gain in registration advantage. In D3 Carter peeled off some Democrats in 2014 and 2017 but he couldn’t manage to make up for a 12% drop in the Republican vote share. Close to 75% of the votes cast in the city election were from Democrats in 2017. These numbers are staggering.

Vote Share 2014 vs 2017 by Party
At Large	2014 Vote Share	2017 Vote Share	dif %
Dem	62%	74%	12%
Rep	27%	17%	-10%

D2	2014 Vote Share	2017 Vote Share	dif %
Dem	50%	68%	18%
Rep	34%	22%	-12%

D3	2014 Vote Share	2017 Vote Share	dif %
Dem	59%	73%	14%
Rep	23%	11%	-12%

D1 and D4	2014 Vote Share	2017 Vote Share	dif %
Dem	77%	84%	7%
Rep	13%	7%	-6%

Clearly there’s something important happening but who are those that chose to vote and what’s causing the uptick in Democratic turnout?

Categories of Voters:

It’s helpful to break the 2017 voters into three main classes:

Regular city voters who voted in 2014 and 2017.
Found voters who didn’t vote in 2014 but voted in 2017. These people were registered to vote in city elections in 2014 but chose not to vote.
New city voters who weren’t registered in 2014 but were in 2017.

Chart 5: Voter Category
	Number	Percentage
Voted 2014; Voted 2017	5,884	54.9%
Registered but didn’t vote in 2014; Voted 2017	2,812	26.2%
Not registered 2014; Registered & voted 2017	2,023	18.9%
Total	10,719

The Regulars:

Turnout was depressed massively for Republican regular voters. In D2 Clawson was a problematic candidate to say the least and it showed in Republican turnout. A full 50% of Republicans who voted in D2 in 2014 chose not to in 2017. It might look like Republicans weren’t feeling it for Clawson but they also weren’t feeling it for Carter in D3. Carter had taken non-Republican positions such as supporting the wild places public spaces tax initiative and making the motion to raise the minimum wage for City workers which could have eroded his Republican base. But that story alone can’t account for a meager 49% retention of Republican voters from 2014 to 2017. Meanwhile Democrats netted a 70% turnout of people who voted in 2014.

Voted in 2014 and 2017 Gainesville Elections
At-Large	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	4331	70%	74%	1204	48%	20%	5884
Total Registered	6220			2531			9554

D2	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	1,689	73%	67%	672	50%	27%	2,529
Total Registered	2,326			1,346			4,040

D3	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	1,434	72%	72%	438	49%	22%	1,987
Total Registered	1,988			899			3,141

D1 and D4	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	1,195	63%	51%	95	33%	4%	2,354
Total Registered	1,888			287			3,155

The Found Voters:

There were 41,450 people who were registered to vote but didn’t cast ballots in 2014. A full 88% didn’t vote again in 2017 but of those that did 73% were Democrats. The Number of Republicans who didn’t vote in 2014 but chose to vote in 2017 was a pathetic 4% or 335 individuals. These are mostly long term residents of Gainesville and many of them have never voted in a city election before. The most likely causation here is the Trump effect. Indivisible, the Women’s March, and various resistance organizations have helped to fire up over two thousand new, long term city residents to vote.

Registered in 2014 and 2017 but did not vote in 2014
At-Large	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	2,153	9%	77%	335	4%	12%	2,812
Total Registered	22,873		55%	8317		20%	41,504

D2	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	925	14%	72%	203	6%	16%	1,284
Total Registered	64,07		51%	3,149		25%	12,446

D3	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	497	11%	76%	81	4%	12%	653
Total Registered	4,662		50%	2,132		23%	9,364

D1/D4	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	729	6%	83%	51	2%	6%	874
Total Registered	11,803		60%	3,036		15%	19,691

The New Voters:

There were ~37,000 people registered to vote in the City of Gainesville in 2017 who were not registered to vote in the city in 2014. Most of these people are voters who moved into the City from elsewhere in the state or even Alachua County but this also includes people who registered to vote for the first time. The vast majority of these people didn’t vote but about 1,400 who did were again disproportionately Democrats. The largest vote capture is in D2 where 16% of these new voters turned out. Overall 68% of the newly registered voters were Democrats and 68% of those that voted were Democrats. Again, Republicans had a pathetic 4% or 293 people turnout from this category in 2017.

2017 New Gainesville City Voters
2017 GNV New Voters	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	1,367	5%	68%	293	4%	14%	2,023
Total Registered	25,144		68%	8,006		22%	36,892

D2 2017 GNV New Voters	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	464	16%	62%	141	9%	19%	747
Total Registered	2,948		44%	1,648		25%	6,649

D3 2017 GNV New Voters	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	371	8%	62%	93	4%	16%	594
Total Registered	4,422		45%	2,148		22%	9,818

D1 and D4 2017 GNV New Voters	Dem	Dem %	Dem Share	Rep	Rep %	Rep Share	Total
Voted	529	5%	74%	59	1%	8%	713
Total Registered	9,772		48%	4,209		21%	20,433

Conclusions:

This progressive wave election in Gainesville happened because Republican candidates were uniquely problematic and because there was a strong Trump effect pushing new city voters to the polls and keeping Republicans from turning out. Republicans and right wing operatives will blame the Democrats registration advantage but a 1.7% gain from 2014 can’t be the sole cause.

The truth is that progressives fired up their base to turnout like never before. They not only made sure that over 70% of those who cast ballots in 2014 did so in 2017, they also made sure that over 3,500 newly registered and longtime residents voted. This could be a precursor to the so called “Indivisible wave” pundits are predicting in 2018 in which Democrats turnout is large numbers and take the US House and Senate.

But this is only half the story. The other important piece for Gainesville in 2017 and the nation in 2018 is that Republicans are highly discouraged. There were large drop offs in all categories of voters and it all can’t be blamed on problematic candidates. Many Republicans are facing a massive disillusionment from Trump’s actions and are becoming discouraged by politics. This could very well have resulted in a record number of Republicans giving up on the electoral process and deciding not to vote in this past election.

This combination of an energized left and a depressed right will make 2018 a very interesting year for politics.